Primetime Texas

The Eyes of America Focus on Primary Voting in the Lone Star State

By Mike Jeffers and Ashwini Salpekar

The Texas Lone Star is shining brightly in the national media spotlight this week in anticipation of the March 4 primary. Texans will participate in what both political pundits and rank-and-file voters agree may be the most consequential electoral runoff among presidential candidates here in two decades. Regardless of its outcome, the pivotal Democratic showdown between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could inject a bolt of blue energy into a previously reliably red state. And even Republican frontrunner John McCain, who has a virtual lock on his party’s presidential nod, has seen the wisdom in using Texas as a platform to start stumping in earnest for the presidental fight to come in the fall. Texans have clearly enjoyed the spectacle of candidates traveling back and forth across the vast state, from the increasingly progressive urban centers of Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio to the vast swaths of rural land in the west and communities along the border. They have also enjoyed having the eyes of the rest of the country focused squarely on them.

“I think the rest of the country is in thrall of Texas right now,” said Bob Mann, a journalism lecturer at the University of Texas at Austin and a political commentator.

Adding to the buzz is a recognition that the stakes are particularly high in Texas for Sens. Clinton and Obama. Clinton needs to win the vote here and in Ohio to remain a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination. Texas doesn’t carry the same weight for Obama, winner of 11 consecutive state primaries, but clearly a big win in a big state is important to tying up his party’s nomination. And since Super Tuesday primary results shattered most widely-held predictions, the candidate who churns up the most excitement in the arena could well become the Democratic nominee for the presidential race. “I can’t remember a Texas primary that was as essential in choosing a candidate as this one,” said Henry Brands, a history professor at UT.

“New Hampshire didn’t decide, Iowa didn’t decide, Florida didn’t decide. And then here we get to Texas,” said Ross Ramsey, editor of Texas Weekly. “Chances are that Texas and Ohio will end the Democratic primary.”

The dynamism of the primary has begun to swing the political pendulum, casting a shadow in both the red and blue portions of the state. This could breathe new life into the hitherto comatose condition of the state’s Democrats. “For the most part this is a moderate to conservative state,” said Ramsey. “We’re not crazy red Republicans. But we’re more red than blue and in shades of purple.”

Dave McNeely, political columnist and journalism lecturer at UT, agreed that for the first time in a long time, Texas’ inclusion in the greater national political structure is of pivotal importance. He said that even without Obama or the national antipathy for Bush, Texas has been bending back in a Democratic direction.

“Dallas County flipped to the Democrats in 2006,” McNeely said. “One of the things this does is when you have a county of that size that flips to Democratic, all of a sudden it’s attractive again to be a Democrat if somebody wants to run for office.”

Brands, on the contrary, said that the rebirth of a strong Democratic movement in Texas is a distant reality. “At least for the next two presidential cycles, Texas will vote red,” he said.

Whatever the momentum, the prospect of a rebirth is good news to Texas Democrats. Once known as the land of Lyndon Johnson and a party bastion, Texas Democrats lost their dominant edge over the years to George Bush’s party. In six of the last seven presidential elections, there has been a Bush on the ballot in Texas. And as a result of the Bush family’s prominence, Democratic presidential campaigns haven’t seen the value in investing time and money to rally support in Texas.

“The Democratic Party ballot has atrophied without the spending and the enthusiasm and the excitement that goes with a presidential campaign,” McNeely said.

Brands said that for the last 30 years, the Democratic nominee has been selected before Texas held its primary. As a result, fewer voters turned out because what they decided had little effect on the outcome of the primary selection process.

Mann said that voter turnout remained low. In the days before television and sound bites, individual communities in Texas experienced a lot of excitement during campaigns.

“In my lifetime, it was summer of 1978, which was the last time that politics were exciting in Texas,” Mann said. “There’s been some bitterness but not much excitement.”

“Texas is pivotal to the presidential race in a way it hasn't been in anyone's recollection – though certainly candidates ranging from Jimmy Carter in 1976 to Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992 valued their wins here,” said Gardner Selby, an Austin American-Statesman political reporter.

The debate in Austin on Feb. 21 injected a shot of adrenaline into the Texas primaries and challenged conventional wisdom that Texan voters simply go through the motions. Record high early voting turnouts have been attributed in part to the excitement stirred by the debate.

“The Democrats have had nothing to cheer about for so long,” said Paul Burka, a political columnist at the Texas Monthly. “For them the debate was a huge deal.”

Mann said that Texas is rising to the occasion given its newfound role in the presidential race. Secretary of State Web site figures show that 920,327 people have voted as of Feb. 28 compared to 193,985 voters during the same period in 2004. Out of these, 601,000 are Democrats.

Clinton needs the nod from Texas to remain viable after 11 straight primary losses to Obama since Super Tuesday. If Obama proves he can do the Texas two-step, he’ll likely become the Democratic candidate for president. McCain has already racked up a majority of the Republican delegates so his tour through Texas has been looking forward to the national election. Nevertheless, supporters of Rep. Ron Paul and former Gov. Mike Huckabee continue to make their voices heard across the state.

Republican pollster Mark DelSignore said that Texas’ big issues revolve around illegal immigration and the economy. However, Brands said that the economy and the Iraq war matter most to Texans today.

Overarching issues, like the war and the economy, are the ones that will decide the swing voters. “Most people wait until November to vote,” Ramsey said. “Those voters are swayed more by issues than by party identification. These are the swing voters.”

All the candidates in the spotlight right now – McCain, Clinton and Obama – are attempting to woo Texas voters with their stands on these issues. “McCain fights against wasteful spending and has pledged to veto as president any pork barrel legislation or earmarks that come across his desk,” said Craig Goldman, a Texas spokesman for McCain’s campaign.

McCain, who has garnered much of the Republican majority throughout the country, will have no problem in courting the conservative, religious right in the state. When it comes to crunch time, the Republicans who don’t like McCain too much are still going to vote for him, said McNeely.

“What’s interesting is that McCain is winning this election from the middle and not from the edges,” Ramsey said. “Huckabee and Paul are spoilers. Neither one of them is going to win here.”

Young voters, African Americans and Hispanics are the three swing demographics that could determine the outcome in the Democratic race, but this depends on the extent to which the candidates can mobilize the electorate to go to the polls.

“The youth vote in Texas is a wild card,” Brands said. “We see a lot of young people getting involved in the primaries. But will they come out in the fall?”

Mann was more optimistic about young people coming out to vote in the Texas primaries. “The youth are going to vote this time,” Mann said. “I’ve never seen 10,000 of them together before. So they will stay on till the fall.”

Ramsey said that to young people, the Iraq war is more present tense. More young people today have friends or relatives their age fighting abroad. “The issues that play in the minds of youths are much more Obama’s field than they are Hillary’s field,” he said.

Traditionally, the youth are an under-voting demographic. “Hillary hasn’t done as much to mobilize the youth because usually in a general election, the youth don’t vote,” Ramsey said.

The revitalization of the Democratic Party is also largely dependent on the rapidly growing Hispanic population in Texas. The Pew Hispanic Center’s national survey in December shows that Hispanics represent about 20 percent, or 2.6 million, of Texas' registered voters. Hispanics make up about 35 to 40 percent of the Democratic primary voters.

“Hispanics are an interesting demographic in that, economically they tend to tilt Democratic but culturally in terms of social values they tend to tilt Republican,” Brands said. “And so the question is, what set of values is more predominant on voting day.”

“The average age of a Texan Hispanic is lower than the average age of a Texan,” Ramsey said. “The last competitive Democratic primary in Texas was in 1990. That was 18 years ago. If the average age of Hispanics in Texas is 30, they were 12 back then.”

One can’t make the assumption that Hispanics have always been voting for Clinton, Ramsey added.

Conversely, Burka was of the opinion that Clinton still remains in the lead with Hispanics, although they are not voting at the same level as blacks. “The Hispanic counties in South Texas are not rolling out the numbers of the cities,” he said.

The black population in the state seems to be in Obama’s camp.

While the overall percentage of black residents is slightly less than 12 percent statewide, African Americans make up more than 25 percent of the population in both Dallas and Houston. “The big metro areas … are no longer conservative strongholds and, with the rise of both African-American and Latino voters — both groups being traditionally Democratic — that could really turn the tide here,” said Eileen Smith, editor of TexasMonthly.com.

Obama represents the crossover for both Hispanics and blacks.

“You see all these blacks and whites and Hispanics and Asians all come together for his rallies,” McNeely said. “With Obama, you’re sending a message to the world that he is the diverse leader of a diverse country.”

According to a Houston Chronicle article, blacks accounted for 19 percent of the state's registered voters in the 2006 general election, compared with 25 percent of Hispanic voters. Blacks are predicted to represent 30 percent of the vote on March 4, while Hispanics may account for 25 percent.

“Hispanics tend to be more Democratic. Blacks tend to be overwhelmingly Democratic,” Ramsey said. “But inside of a primary it gets much more complex. Are they Obama Democrats or are they Clinton Democrats?”

Many political observers agree that the level of discontent in the country with the Bush administration is so high that both Democratic voters and disgruntled Republicans are clamoring for change. This, combined with the surge of energy from the Democratic primary race has brought out new voters -– independents, as well as Republican defectors.

“There is this saying that ‘I didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me,’” McNeely said. “I think the Republicans are saying the same thing now. They feel that their party is not standing for something that they believe.”

“When you add up those who voted for Huckabee and those who voted for Paul in the primary you will get a measure of disaffection within the Republican Party,” Ramsey said.

There is a remote possibility that high voter turnout won’t be sustained though the March 4 election and that the actual turnout will be substantially lower than in previous years. “Historically, you have less than 2 million people participating in the Republican or Democratic primaries but then you have 5.5 million who will vote in the general elections,” McNeely said. “It seems to happen increasingly that more people turn out early to vote in Texas.”

On the other hand, the early voting turnout could be just a proportional boom and the March 4 turnout will be the same as it has always been, Ramsey said.

Republican pollster DelSignore said it’s nice that the state is being spoiled with the national attention. But will the excitement last?

Liberal-minded pundits across the state are also wondering if the awakening of a long dormant Texas Democratic Party will last through the general election.

Some say that Republican Texas could be a swing state in the general elections. “Texas could become a swing state in the general election,” Mann said. “It can go blue with Obama but not with Clinton.”

Burka can’t see Texas Texas turning blue this fall. “In the end Texas Republicans are going to support John McCain,” he said. “They’re not going to particularly like it, but they’re going to support him.”

“Texas politics will be exciting until next Tuesday and then after that Tuesday it will be very dull,” Brands said. “Because next Tuesday is the last time we will see any of the candidates. The eyes of America are on Texas for the next few days only.”

The short attention span of the national media is likely to shift elsewhere after Tuesday’s election, but the excitement of this primary appears to have stirred a long-stagnant politcal pot and reinvigorated the dialogue on both sides of the aisle in Texas.

But the near term implications of the last few weeks ensure the Lone Star State will not be taken for granted come the November elections.

“We’re going to find out in the fall how many real Republicans there are in Texas,” Burka said.