A Different Republican in Texas
Elisabeth Long
AUSTIN – While Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been shaking hands and kissing babies all over Texas for the past two weeks, Sen. John McCain rolled into town just days ago. His itinerary includes appearances at large corporate campuses, including Dell and Texas Instruments, and fundraising events, but relatively light on public rallies and town hall meetings.
This stark contrast between the Democratic and Republican campaign strategies stems not so much from a difference in philosophy but from a practical difference in what is at stake in the March 4 Texas primary. For the Republicans, the race is less about choosing a nominee than it is about getting ready for the general elections in the fall.
"It's important that we unite the party," McCain said in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, which has endorsed him along with most other big-city papers in Texas. "There's a wide spectrum of the Republican Party in Texas. I'm going to do what I can to unite it."
McCain has been getting Republicans of all stripes to the polls, though not at the levels the Democrats are seeing, said Hans Klingler, a spokesperson for the Texas Republican Party, in a telephone interview. "We are up, similar to most presidential years – well above shattering records in our larger counties."
A McCain win in Texas will likely cement his nomination at the Republican National Convention in the Twin Cities this September. According to the most recent polls, McCain has anywhere from 53 to 62 percent of the Republican vote in Texas, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee up to 40 percentage points behind him.
A slew of GOP powerbrokers have endorsed McCain, including Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Former President George H. W. Bush and Congresswoman Kay Granger.
"I'm proud to be supporting John McCain's campaign for president because I am confident that he is the only candidate that can lead our party to victory in November," said Congresswoman Granger to the press on Thursday.
That kind of party-line comment has been increasingly common since early February, when President Bush called McCain a "true conservative" and urged Republicans to unite behind a candidate. McCain has had a hard time getting support from more conservative
Republicans, who see many of his positions, such as his opposition of a constitutional ban on gay marriage and his votes against Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, as too centrist.
But McCain has slowly been gaining ground in Mike Huckabee's evangelical Christian territory. On Wednesday, the Arizona senator won the endorsement of the Rev. John Hagee, a prominent Christian leader of a 17,000-member church in San Antonio and host of a popular national television program. "He does not stand on both sides of any
fence," said Hagee at a press conference in San Antonio, addressing some conservative's fears that McCain may be too moderate for the party.
All eyes are on Texas for primary season, but with the win an almost forgone conclusion, the GOP has moved on to the general election. By taking the primary for granted, McCain may find a more challenging race when he comes back to Texas for the general election.
On his most recent trip to Texas, McCain has focused on fundraising, an area where he has not been so successful. According to Federal Election Commission data through February 20, 2008, McCain had only raised $2.9 million in Texas, which puts him fifth in amount of money raised in the state behind Giuliani, Clinton, Romney, and Obama.
With Giuliani and Romney out of the race, the McCain campaign is trying to catch up with four fundraisers in three days in Austin, Dallas, Houston and Fort Worth.
This focus on money instead of votes may win him the primary, but could be problematic in the general election. Texas traditionally splits about 60 percent Republican, 40 percent Democratic in the general election, but recent polling by CNN puts Texan voters at a
lackluster 52 percent for McCain, with 44 percent for Obama.
The apparent lack of excitement over McCain, combined with projected record voter turnout on the democratic side, could spell trouble for Republicans come November. But the party isn't worried. "Democrats aren't usually able to turn voters back out in the general election," said Klingler.