Doing the Texas Math

By Sam Iyer

AUSTIN – The Democratic presidential nomination contest is heading for a showdown in Texas on March 4, and never before has a campaign season seen as much emphasis on voting demographics. Polls are being conducted across the Lone Star State, and one group seems to have emerged as the state’s pivotal constituency in the battle between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: Hispanics.

With the second highest population and number of delegates of any state, Texas will likely decide the fate of the Democratic presidential nomination. “It’s the first time in more than 20 years that the Texas primary matters so much,” said Lydia Camarillo, vice president of Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, a non-partisan organization in San Antonio. And this Hispanic vote will likely be a key to that nomination.

To date, Hispanic turnout in this year’s primaries has broken records. Twice as many Hispanics voted in the Feb. 5 primary in California this year as compared to the 2004 elections. Hispanics made up 30 percent of California’s Democratic electorate and voted two-to-one for Clinton to win the country’s largest state. Clinton will need a similar turnout in Texas to stay competitive in the race.

“More Latinos are going to vote in these primaries than ever before,” said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the San Antonio voting group. Since 2000, the Hispanic population in Texas has increased by 14.3 percent, according to the state’s demographic estimates. Of the state’s registered voters, 2.6 million are Hispanic. Gonzalez expects that up to 35 percent of the Democratic vote in the March 4 primary will be Hispanic, the highest in Texas voting history.

Carillo said Hispanic voters are just as concerned about issues such as affordable health insurance, education and the economy as other voters, but the war has an added importance in the Texas constituency. According to statistics from the Pew Hispanic Research Center, Hispanics make up 9.5 percent of the actively enlisted forces and make more than 17.5 percent of soldiers on the front lines.

“I lost my brother in the war, and I don’t want any more people fighting an endless battle with no consequences,” said Maria Machi, a hairdresser in Buda and second-generation American.

Just as important as the war is the issue of immigration. “It is a litmus test,” Camarillo said of immigration. “Candidates must strategise how they will govern Latinos – with dignity,” she said. Candidates recognize immigration and treatment of Hispanics as an important issue among these voters and are talking about their plans for improvement in campaigns and rallies across Texas.

From El Paso to Houston, candidates have made a lot of efforts to garner the Hispanic vote. Clinton’s daughter Chelsea, husband Bill and hundreds volunteers are campaigning for her in major cities while she woos people in border towns and areas with a high Hispanic population such as El Paso and Rio Grande Valley.

The Clinton campaign aired a Spanish-language television advertisement. Similarly, Obama released Spanish-language radio advertisements in eight markets and a Spanish television advertisement running in Houston, San Antonio, Harlingen, McAllen, Corpus Christi and Laredo.

Locally, Obama's campaign opened an office in East Austin, a predominantly Hispanic and African American stronghold. Volunteers said that Obama is striking a chord with Hispanics, pointing to wins in Iowa, Virginia, Connecticut and Illinois, states that have rather strong minority populations.

Gary Keith, an assistant political science professor at Incarnate Word University in San Antonio, said Texas is now truly a tri-cultural state. “But since the Hispanic population is more widespread across the state, it is important in more areas than is true for blacks,” Keith said in an email interview.

“An increasingly Latino voting population means politicians will pay more attention to their communities and their interests,” he said.

With the primary hours away, political experts like Keith are reluctant to predict how the election will turn out among Texas’ Hispanic voters. But they can agree on one thing: Hispanics could well decide the Democratic presidential nominee.